Saturday, October 08, 2005

USGS Global Oil Discovery Chart

The US Geological Survey's prediction of global oil discovery:

What does this mean? The line is past discovery. Past is... well... history. What's been already discovered. You will see a very clearly defined peak in discovery in the early 1970s. OK, so what's P95 and P5? According to geologists who have done very thorough studies and tests of the world to determine what is left in the earth, this is how much is left to find. P95 is what's 95 percent probable to be found, given geological conditions and past discovery history in such conditions. P5 is what's 5 percent likely to be found given the same. Mean is the average of those two probablilties... And the mean is what's reported as THE number.


mind boggligly stupid, eh? let's say i were to plan my finances this way... ok, given thorough study, I'm 95 percent likely to earn X$, and I'm 5 percent likely to earn 10X$. So to figure out how much I should spend... i'll just average them together! My calculations show that I actually will make 5.5 times more than it is 95 percent likely that I will actually make, so I can spend accordingly. brilliant! given the current trends in debt and bankruptcy, i think more people than just the USGS use this method...

it's a pyramid scheme--both debt spending and oil consumption. these "houses of cards" are co-dependant... and they're looking rather shakey...


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